US Open Predictions
Golf predictions are the worst. But I like options. So I’ll give you my final twosome – the two guys who I think have the best chance to win – at the 114th United States Open. And I’ll throw in a few more names, free of charge.
My final twosome
pga.com
Bubba Watson – 1st time major champions have been the thing at the US Open. I’m going against the grain. Bubba’s 7th in greens in regulation and 2nd in bogey avoidance. But I really like Bubba because the US Open lacks thick rough. I think this plays into the hands of the most creative shotmaker in golf.
masspictures.net
Jordan Spieth – The kid is knocking on the door and he’s destined to win soon. Spieth knows how to score when it matters – 11th in scrambling, 25th in sand saves, and 29th in strokes gained. He’s contended in the two biggest tournaments in 2014. Why couldn’t this be the week he goes from contending to winning?
Penultimate group
Phil Mickelson – Shocker. Not for the obvious reasons. Phil is 7th in putting from 5-10 feet. He’s 8th in sand saves and in the top 40 in scrambling. But when Phil wins majors, he wins them when he has two consecutive tune-ups before each major. Four times in his careers this has happened, the only time this didn’t happen was the 2005 PGA Championship. He’s ready. Will he be good enough?
Rory McIlroy – All world talent. Probably the most talented player in this tournament. Makes a lot of one putts, a lot of 3-5 footers, and he scrambles well. We all know he hits the ball a country mile. I would be stunned if he’s not in contention on Sunday.
Others to watch
Sergio Garcia – 1st in bogey avoidance, top 5 in scrambling, top 10 in strokes gained. Can you trust a guy who’s not sure he can win a major?
Jimmy Walker – Phenomenal year, 1st in FedEx points. At the top of the ranks in strokes gained and greens in regulation. Also fits the bill as a first time winner.
Why Phil Mickelson Isn’t Going To Jail
Phil Mickelson isn’t getting arrested and going to jail. Sorry.
This FBI investigation does have merit. Let’s just say I’ll disagree with this New York Post article from Charles Gasparino:
http://nypost.com/2014/06/02/the-feds-hit-a-bogey-an-empty-case-on-mickelson/
Near the article’s end, Gasparino writes about the Feds taking the easy way out on this – scaring Mickelson into ratting out others. He’s right. Mickelson is the tippee(the end user) in this scenario. He’s taken some info, legal or not, to make a quick buck. Phil likely made more money on Super Bowl bets than he did in this exchange. The money is immaterial to the Feds.
What matters is the tippee(the source). The Feds want to know what Mickelson knows, how he knows it, and who provided him with the info. They also want to do their due diligence on how long Mickelson has conducted business in this manner. Whether the Feds are after Carl Icahn, Billy Walters, or someone in between, I don’t know.
The way the FBI went about this case does draw more attention than the alternative. Fat cats like Icahn probably have enough money and resources to not care. But I’ve heard worse ideas than using a high-profile athlete to crack down on a few middlemen and their insider trades. Even if Phil made the trades legally, would it be surprising to know Walters used insider info on a number of other trades? Not really.
It’s too early to label this case a birdie or bogey. Let’s just say the FBI has a side-hill, 30-foot birdie putt. Too short and the nerves kick in on a tough par putt. Too long and the hole gets away from them. The FBI needs to hit this putt just right.
Moving on from Wozzilroy
Fish and chips, pints of Guinness, and the BMW PGA. That’s all I needed from a Galway pub two Sundays ago. Earlier, I stopped from placing a wager on Rory McIlroy to come from seven back to win the tournament. Nothing against Thomas Bjorn, Shane Lowry, and Luke Donald. I just thought I’d get good odds on young Rory. I could think of a lot worse ways to drop 20 euro.
I should’ve made the bet.
I chuckled when I saw McIlroy charge up the leaderboard and win the tournament. Who knew a gut feeling and an odd bet would come through? I laughed at the post-round comments from my fellow bar patrons. In typical honest, Irish fashion, here’s the very first comment from my neighbor:
That girl f***** him up for a year and a half. Complete waste of time!
Can’t say I disagree with him. Which made me wonder about the initial shock from McIlroy’s announcement before the BMW PGA. Why were we really surprised this didn’t last?
From a few months in, Wozzilroy posted an awfully lot of intimate pics on social media. We were introduced to the naming of the couple, Wozzilroy, by the couple itself. On a Vokey wedge. About two or three months into the relationship. We saw these two travel the world to see each other. And after that became a trend, we watched their world number one rankings fall faster than Wile E. Coyote from a cliff. Not surprising for a 25 and 23 year old.
Meanwhile, McIlroy’s fellow countryman, Graeme McDowell uses social media a little differently. Lots of posts, generally related to golf courses, golf travel, Cleveland golf, and his Nona Blue restaurant. A lot of golf and some business. Occasionally, we’ll see McDowell and his lovely wife. But not often.
Maybe the young Wozzilroys should’ve kept a little more distance between them and the spotlight. Young love played a part in a lot of those decisions, I’m sure. Just as important, maybe these two kids need a significant other to ground them, to help them focus on their games. It’s quite the task when both are at the top of their professions, which involve significant travel.
My other interest in this story is the growth from the BMW PGA until now. Since two Sundays ago, we saw Wozniacki’s first round out in the French, Rory’s 63 at Memorial, Wozniacki’s wicked witch avatar on twitter, followed by a second round 78 from McIlroy. All of a sudden a few golf outlets started covering Wozniacki’s weekend fun in Miami.
Why do we care? He’s 25, she’s 23. They should be out enjoying themselves. Maybe, just maybe, they might find a partner that’s better suited for them. Shocker, I know.
These two kids are moving on. So should we. Can we do that already?
Matt's Box Seat Observations 