Defending Xander Bogaerts
Why is Xander Bogaerts projected to hit sixth? Is John Farrell crazy? The answers, in order, are I don’t know and I hope not.
Yes, Xander Bogaerts hit third in the lineup yesterday against the Orioles. That was also in a lineup not including Betts and Benintendi. And it was only one game.
Right now, it looks like John Farrell will start the season with a 2-6 of Betts, Benintendi, Ramirez, Moreland, and Bogaerts. Much of this is the alternating righty-lefty combo. I’m sure some of this is due to Bogaerts end of 2016 slump. But is Mitch Moreland is the answer? This is a guy who has never scored more than 60 runs and never had an OBP higher than .330 in the five seasons of 350+ plate appearances.
Meanwhile, Xander Bogaerts OBP the last two seasons has been .355 and .356 respectively. His run totals the last three years have skyrocketed from 60 to 114. Obviously, Bogaerts spent a lot of time at the top of the order last year, giving him more opportunities to get on base and score. But he also scores runs because he will get on base an additional 4 to 5% more than Moreland.
Moreland’s slugging percentage is about 30 points higher, but the 2016 home runs totals are nearly identical. OPS and OPS+ are also nearly identical. Is this enough to warrant Xander Bogaerts hitting sixth?
No it’s not. It’s arguable that Bogaerts should bat second, third, or fourth. But that’s for another blog post. Right now, batting Bogaerts in front of Moreland is a no-brainer.
The good news is we’re less than a week away from seeing this grand experiment begin.
Thoughts on Speeding Up Baseball
Remember what Clint Eastwood’s Dirty Harry character said about opinions? Well, I won’t print it here. But you can google it and get the point.
In the wake of baseball’s new intentional walk rule, it seems like everyone has an opinion on how to speed up baseball. In last Sunday’s Boston Globe baseball column, Nick Cafardo shared opinions from nine anonymous major leaguers (link attached).
Some thoughts were very outside of the box, which was the point. Like everything else in life, baseball will need to evolve or it risks becoming a niche sport(see, NHL). I’m more of a baseball purist. To me, I love the game and wouldn’t change much. But if MLB is trying to grow its business, concessions will need to be made.
I’m sure I’ll have a few thoughts throughout the season on what concessions to make. For today, I’ll point out two concessions that won’t be made.
Reducing time between innings – Not going to happen. Commercials, and in turn, media, help pay the bills for media companies. The same media companies that are signing massive national and local rights deals. Owners like money, media companies like money, and advertisers like money. So the media companies will sell whatever advertising they can to help support the large rights deals they just paid.
Reducing the season – Whether it’s 8 games or one less month, neither will happen. And for the same reason I wrote above. Money. According to a 2016 GOBankingRates study of MLB stadium prices, the average cost for two people to spend a day at the ballpark is just under $80. I’m going to use round numbers for the sake of efficiency and say $40/person.
We’re going to assume a plan of reducing the season by 8 games(4 home games per team). Not a lot, but at least the World Series can be completed in October. On the lower end of the spectrum, an MLB park has a capacity of 40,000 people. So here’s what’s lost by asking teams to give up 4 home games per year:
- 160,000 fans not attending baseball games (40,000 x 4)
- $6,400,000 not being spent at the ballpark
- In the case of the Dodgers, with the largest stadium capacity, you’re looking at $9M
So by reducing the season, we’re asking teams to get rid of one Anthony Rizzo, Jason Hammel, or Travis Wood. Sorry for all the 2016 Cubs World Series champs references. But you get the point. Not happening.
I do appreciate the recommendations and outside the box thoughts for helping baseball evolve. Asking owners and players to give up money to make us fans feel better is off the table. I challenge baseball fans everywhere to think more critically when looking for solutions to help continue baseball’s success.
Matt's Box Seat Observations 