Watching the Celtics-Lakers game from Saturday, it was painfully obvious from the start and it really hit home by the end.

The Celtics bench is bad. At least on the offensive end.

Yes, you know this already. Fair enough. I type these words in part because I admit that even a fully health Celtics team may not reach the conference finals, let alone the NBA Finals. Sure, Walker, Smart, and Pritchard will get healthy again. But I think we all agree that even a healthy Celtics squad is probably enough to win.

I also write this because we’re watching a depleted Celtics lose a bunch of winnable games. It’s painful. Inconsistent play, injuries, and lineup and rotation continuity are all factors for the ups and downs through the first 20 games. Bench play is a big issue too and I’ve wondered how big this issue is.

I’ve re-watched the fourth quarter of the last three games, specifically focusing on the opening of the quarter. A few reasons for looking at the problem through this lens. First, the lineup to start the fourth quarter is generally a Tatum and the Bench lineup. Second, when it comes to the final stanza, the Celts usually have a lead or are trailing in a one possession game. Yes, the bench has been on the floor for large leads and deficits in the middle two quarters. See the last four games as acknowledgement. But the Celts have found a way to overcome bad play and hang on to a lead by the end of the third.

The problem is the fourth. Just throwing this out there, but ideally, you’d want to start out the fourth quarter with a few quick buckets to solidify or retake your lead. The Celts seem to do the opposite of this, forcing them to either get hot or scramble the remainder of the fourth quarter to pull out a win. 

This Celtics problem dawned on me during the fourth quarter of the Spurs game. I focused on the Celtics offensive possessions during the first 3-4 minutes of the fourth quarter of the last three games(Lakers, Warriors, Kings). This is more eye test than advanced analytics. Someday I’ll get into more analytics, I promise. But for now, here’s some observations I had during the past three games.  

Celtics vs Lakers, 1/30/21

End of Q3 Score: 78-71

Celts 4^th Quarter Lineup: Tatum, Smart, Teague, Thompson, and Ojeleye

Offensive Possessions(game time listed is when Celtics began possession):

• 11:44: Tatum stripped on a pick and roll with Rob Williams, 8 seconds left on the shot clock
• 11:24: Tatum iso and missed turnaround jumper from 20 feet, 6 left on the shot clock
• 10:51: Teague drive and missed floater, 16 left on the shot clock
• 10:28: Nesmith turnover, out of bounds on a 3-point attempt

Comment: The Lakers scored eight in a row, capped off by a Talen Horton-Tucker layup, which gave them a 79-78 lead. It took the Celtics over three minutes to score a single basket, a Jeff Teague layup. They scored seven points in the first seven minutes of the fourth quarter. They also had seven turnovers in those same seven minutes. Is that bad? Seems bad?

The Marcus Smart injury occurred with 10:28 left and Aaron Nesmith subbed in for the next two minutes. The Celtics wouldn’t go on to do much offensively until the final five minutes in the game.

Celtics vs Warriors, 2/2/21

End of Q3 Score: 86-85, Celtics

Celts 4^th Quarter Lineup: Tatum, Teague, Thompson, G. Williams, Green

Offensive Possessions(game time listed is when Celtics began possession):

• 11:45: Tatum fadeaway miss with the shot clock winding down
• 11:23 Teague misses a contested 3 after a G. Williams offensive board
• 11:07: Teague gets a breakaway off a steal, but has the layup blocked
• 10:53: Tatum iso – makes a step back 3
• 9:49: Teague misses an awkward and contested 17-footer
• 9:34: Thompson get the offensive rebound and Tatum misses a step back 3
• 9:12: Thompson makes a bucket in the paint; Celts take a 91-90 lead
• 8:34(tie game): Turnover – Thompson and G. Williams run a hi-lo; Williams can’t corral the Thompson’s pass from the top of the key

Comment: After this possession, Golden State hit a bucket to take the lead. The Celts promptly turn the ball over again on a 3-second call. In looking at the previous possessions, the ball movement was a little better. We also see a couple of iso plays, one turnover(an improvement from the Lakers game), and too many Jeff Teague shots.

Celtics vs Kings, 2/3/21

End of Q3 Score: 82-81, Celtics

Celts 4^th Quarter Lineup: Tatum, Ojeleye, G. Williams, R. Williams, Waters

Offensive Possessions(game time listed is when Celtics began possession):

• 11:35: Waters three from the wing with 12 on the shot clock
• 11:06: Tatum iso in a Sacramento zone – R. Williams with the putback on a Tatum missed layup
• 10:14: Waters fouled on the drive, 1-2 from the free throw line
• 9:54: Waters misses a quick three with 17 on the shot clock
• 9:14: Waters makes a floater of a PnR after a series of side-to-side ball movement
• 8:32: Second chance points off a R. Williams dunk; Tatum initially missed a floater

Comment: Having Rob Williams start the quarter with this group may have been a blessing. The Celts scored 7 points with 4 of them being second chance points, all thanks to Rob Williams. The downfall is not much ball movement except for one possession. And a lot of Tremont Waters shooting. The same Tremont Waters who’s shooting 26% on the season.

Observations

The Celts start the fourth quarter offensively as inconsistent at best and not particularly good at worst. Tatum at times will try to take over, as he should, with varying degrees of success. It’s a lot of isolation or the two-man game. Not a lot of passing. When Tatum drives to the basket, he’s settling for floaters. No finishes at the rim and he’s not drawing fouls either. Tatum needs to take advantage of his size and get to the rim. It’s also clear Tatum needs another weapon to help space the floor and put the ball in the basket.

Who, from this roster, you ask? Well, definitely not Jeff Teague or Tremont Waters. I give Tremont Waters credit for drawing a foul on a layup in the Kings game. As the second to last guy on the roster, he must hit his free throws. Hitting 83% for the season(small sample), he made 1 of 2. Both players have the propensity to take shots early in the shot clock too. Waters took two three in that fourth quarter start during the Kings game. One was at 12 seconds; the other at 17. I’m sure Brad Stevens would tell you he’s not happy with the lack of ball movement. However, with Smart and Pritchard on the injured list, I’m not sure what more the Celtics can do with their guards.

Tristan Thompson has played much better over the past few nights and Rob Williams was awesome in last night’s game against the Kings. One of these two should be on the floor to start the fourth. Having a good offensive rebounder to keep possessions alive is a must for this group.

What about the Wings? Well, that’s the issue. Semi Ojeleye’s shooting 30% from 3 over his last ten games, which is regressing to the norm after a hot start. Grant Williams is now 9 of 18 over his last ten games from 3. The problem is he’s had his struggles on both ends of the floor, excluding his three-point shooting prowess. On the surface, it sems like the Celtics miss Marcus Smart and Payton Pritchard. But even Marcus Smart is shooting 39% from the field on the season, including 31% from three. It’s not a lock these fourth quarter starts would be better with a healthy squad.

I prefer to be in the solutions business and I’m at a loss other than the obvious: the TPE. The Celtics need a scorer with size. Those are Danny Ainge’s words, as he told the Toucher and Rich radio program. Harrison Barnes, Nikola Vucevic, and Serge Ibaka were names thrown about in Celtics twitter today. Feels like Barnes and Ibaka would be more likely than Vucevic. All would be upgrades to what they have. That’s what they’re missing though – reliable scoring off the bench. Until they find it, Jayson Tatum will continue to see double teams and teams will force the likes of Semi, Grant, Teague, Waters, and Carsen Edwards to beat them. Lots of luck.

And that’s the frustration of this Celtics team. Jaylen Brown has made a huge leap; many predict he’ll be an All-Star this year. Jayson Tatum is Jayson Tatum. The surrounding pieces have been okay in spurts, but overall, they haven’t been good enough. Daniel Theis has seemed good on the offensive end in the past 2-3 weeks. Rob Williams and Payton Pritchard have been pleasant surprises in short spurts. But that’s not enough. At a minimum, the Celtics need a healthy squad and Kemba Walker playing at an All-Star level, even if he’s the third option on this team. With Tatum and Brown taking the next step in each of their careers, it’s time to find them the supporting cast they need. For now, expect more double digit blown leads, slow fourth quarter starts, and frantic finishes. Exciting, frustrating, and taking years off our lives.

The word to describe the Celtics beginning of fourth quarter offense is the same word you can use to describe the remainder of the Celtics first half season: Survival.