Phil Mickelson isn’t getting arrested and going to jail.  Sorry.

This FBI investigation does have merit.  Let’s just say I’ll disagree with this New York Post article from Charles Gasparino:

http://nypost.com/2014/06/02/the-feds-hit-a-bogey-an-empty-case-on-mickelson/

Near the article’s end, Gasparino writes about the Feds taking the easy way out on this – scaring Mickelson into ratting out others.  He’s right.  Mickelson is the tippee(the end user) in this scenario.  He’s taken some info, legal or not, to make a quick buck.  Phil likely made more money on Super Bowl bets than he did in this exchange.  The money is immaterial to the Feds.  

What matters is the tippee(the source).  The Feds want to know what Mickelson knows, how he knows it, and who provided him with the info.  They also want to do their due diligence on how long Mickelson has conducted business in this manner.  Whether the Feds are after Carl Icahn, Billy Walters, or someone in between, I don’t know.

The way the FBI went about this case does draw more attention than the alternative.  Fat cats like Icahn probably have enough money and resources to not care.  But I’ve heard worse ideas than using a high-profile athlete to crack down on a few middlemen and their insider trades.  Even if Phil made the trades legally, would it be surprising to know Walters used insider info on a number of other trades?  Not really.  

It’s too early to label this case a birdie or bogey.  Let’s just say the FBI has a side-hill, 30-foot birdie putt.  Too short and the nerves kick in on a tough par putt.  Too long and the hole gets away from them.  The FBI needs to hit this putt just right.