US Open Predictions
Golf predictions are the worst. But I like options. So I’ll give you my final twosome – the two guys who I think have the best chance to win – at the 114th United States Open. And I’ll throw in a few more names, free of charge.
My final twosome
pga.com
Bubba Watson – 1st time major champions have been the thing at the US Open. I’m going against the grain. Bubba’s 7th in greens in regulation and 2nd in bogey avoidance. But I really like Bubba because the US Open lacks thick rough. I think this plays into the hands of the most creative shotmaker in golf.
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Jordan Spieth – The kid is knocking on the door and he’s destined to win soon. Spieth knows how to score when it matters – 11th in scrambling, 25th in sand saves, and 29th in strokes gained. He’s contended in the two biggest tournaments in 2014. Why couldn’t this be the week he goes from contending to winning?
Penultimate group
Phil Mickelson – Shocker. Not for the obvious reasons. Phil is 7th in putting from 5-10 feet. He’s 8th in sand saves and in the top 40 in scrambling. But when Phil wins majors, he wins them when he has two consecutive tune-ups before each major. Four times in his careers this has happened, the only time this didn’t happen was the 2005 PGA Championship. He’s ready. Will he be good enough?
Rory McIlroy – All world talent. Probably the most talented player in this tournament. Makes a lot of one putts, a lot of 3-5 footers, and he scrambles well. We all know he hits the ball a country mile. I would be stunned if he’s not in contention on Sunday.
Others to watch
Sergio Garcia – 1st in bogey avoidance, top 5 in scrambling, top 10 in strokes gained. Can you trust a guy who’s not sure he can win a major?
Jimmy Walker – Phenomenal year, 1st in FedEx points. At the top of the ranks in strokes gained and greens in regulation. Also fits the bill as a first time winner.
Why Phil Mickelson Isn’t Going To Jail
Phil Mickelson isn’t getting arrested and going to jail. Sorry.
This FBI investigation does have merit. Let’s just say I’ll disagree with this New York Post article from Charles Gasparino:
http://nypost.com/2014/06/02/the-feds-hit-a-bogey-an-empty-case-on-mickelson/
Near the article’s end, Gasparino writes about the Feds taking the easy way out on this – scaring Mickelson into ratting out others. He’s right. Mickelson is the tippee(the end user) in this scenario. He’s taken some info, legal or not, to make a quick buck. Phil likely made more money on Super Bowl bets than he did in this exchange. The money is immaterial to the Feds.
What matters is the tippee(the source). The Feds want to know what Mickelson knows, how he knows it, and who provided him with the info. They also want to do their due diligence on how long Mickelson has conducted business in this manner. Whether the Feds are after Carl Icahn, Billy Walters, or someone in between, I don’t know.
The way the FBI went about this case does draw more attention than the alternative. Fat cats like Icahn probably have enough money and resources to not care. But I’ve heard worse ideas than using a high-profile athlete to crack down on a few middlemen and their insider trades. Even if Phil made the trades legally, would it be surprising to know Walters used insider info on a number of other trades? Not really.
It’s too early to label this case a birdie or bogey. Let’s just say the FBI has a side-hill, 30-foot birdie putt. Too short and the nerves kick in on a tough par putt. Too long and the hole gets away from them. The FBI needs to hit this putt just right.
O-lé, Olé, Olé, Olé
Alright, already. I’ve heard enough your damn song. I get it. The Euros won the Ryder Cup.
It was the most magical sporting event I’ve ever been too, and I wasn’t even there on Sunday. I did make it there Saturday though. The last time I felt that electricity in a venue was the 2009 Winter Classic at Wrigley Field. Whether it was pumping up Bubba on the first tee, yelling “War Eagle” on every Dufner tee shot, or watching the great Ian Poulter hole putt after putt, it was pretty special. It helps that Medinah Country Club was in pristine condition. When Davis Love III demanded the rough be cut, we all knew the Ryder Cup would become a birdie-fest. Right, we were. The conditions were way easier than when I played in June. That’s a different story for a different day.
However, the day that we will all remember – and that anyone is talking about – is Sunday. It’s easy to second guess DLIII. I have. Tiger Woods should not have been the 12th man. We learned that lesson in 2002 at the Belfry. But that’s not why the Americans lost. Not playing Phil and Keegan on Saturday afternoon is also not why the Americans lost. Maybe Furyk and Stricker weren’t the best captains picks? But that’s not the main reason either.
The Euros played better on Sunday. That’s it. That’s the only reason.
Each line up was front-loaded. The Euro lineup a little more front-loaded than the Americans, but that didn’t matter much. In the end, Donald, Rose, McIlroy, and Poulter closed strong. Bubba, Webb, Keegan, and Phil did not. That was it. Ballgame.
Even the hottest golfer on the planet, Brandt Snedeker, got pasted by Paul Lawrie.
Even Lee Westwood, who was the worst Euro golfer this past weekend, earned a singles win.
The Euros just played better when it mattered. Period. I’m just sad that it happened on my home turf. It was the worst case scenario on what was arguably one of our best weekends. And one of my best weekends too.
Matt's Box Seat Observations 